Other NFL win totals to consider

Posted: August 28, 2011 in NFL Gambling
Tags: , , , , , , ,

After the first 3 weeks of the preseason, the Detroit Lions have looked pretty solid and the wiseguys are catching on. The win total is set at 7.5 and everyone seems to be jumping on the over as evidence by the -180 money line. With a healthy Matt Stafford and an up and coming defense, an 8-8 finish would seem pretty reasonable. Not so fast!

First, I would need to be 100% sure that Matthew Stafford is going to play all 16 games this season. Over his two year career, Stafford has missed 19 of 32 games and is coming off  season-ending surgery on his throwing shoulder. The Lions also have a reasonably difficult schedule this year (they play the AFC West and NFC South this season). The Packers and Bears should be the class of the NFC North again, and Minnesota should improve as McNabb will prove to be quite the upgrade over Tavaris Jackson. With the under paying +150 and Stafford’s health concerns, I am leaning towards the under as the smarter play for your money. I likely will not be touching this one with a 10 foot pole however!

Another team listed at 7.5 wins is the St. Louis Rams. Instead of paying -180 like the Lions, the Rams will only cost -105 for the over. Similar to the Lions, the Rams are an up and coming team with a former number 1 overall pick playing the QB position. The difference here is that the Rams play in the weakest division in the NFL. So why do the Rams cost much less than the Lions for the same win total? The unlucky Rams drew the AFC North and NFC East, but that’s not all… The Rams also drew the two previous Super Bowl winners, the Saints and Packers, to fill out their schedule, whereas the Lions drew the Cowboys and 49ers. I like the Rams offense a lot this year, especially with Josh McDaniels working with Sam Bradford along with some new and healthier weapons. However, I am not sold on the defense and the out of division schedule is too tough. Another under I like that may be too close to touch.

Others I feel more confident about and don’t see a need for in-depth analysis in this blog are the Bengals under 5.5 (-165) and Texans over 8.5 (-175). With money lines that high and the payout date so far away, I will look elsewhere for a place to put my money!

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