The Peyton Manning Factor

Posted: September 5, 2011 in NFL Gambling
Tags: , , , , , , ,

Photo: AP

While my book does not have a line for the Texans vs. Colts game in Week 1, Vegas Insider shows the line has changed significantly since the news about Peyton Manning worsened over the past few days. The line opened at Indy -1 (-110) and has swung all the way to Houston being a 9 point favorite (-110) at some Vegas books! My book has even removed the Colts win total off the board.

I think the betting public is going to sell Indy short and not give them the respect they deserve without Manning at the helm. The Colts are still loaded at the receiver position and get one of the best tight ends in the league back from injury. I almost feel bad even typing Kerry Collins in the same paragraph as Peyton Manning, but Collins is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in league history. While Collins may not have won a ton of games over his career, he was not always surrounded by a lot of talent either. After Week 1, Collins will move past Joe Montana into 10th place on the all-time passing yards list (only needs 110 yards). With 2 touchdown passes, he will be tied for 27th all time in TD passes with Kurt Warner. Not too shabby huh?

While the past few years have been nothing to speak of, let’s not forget that only a few years ago Collins led the Titans to a 13-3 record and fell only 3 points short of reaching the AFC championship. Let’s also not forget that Collins led the New York Giants to a Super Bowl berth early in his career. With Manning in Collins’ ear between every possession on the sideline, I expect Collins to be able to limit his mistakes and put together a productive enough performance to keep the game competitive. I still haven’t made my final decision yet, but right now I am leaning towards the Colts +9 as one of my favorite early lines.


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